Essay in Policy Evaluation

This dissertation studies the effectiveness of various policies focusing on examining experimental and nonexperimental data using various methodologies. The first chapter presents a novel dataset of the universe of municipal gun ordinances between 2008 and 2019 to estimate the effects of gun ordinances on firearm fatalities. To do so, I isolate plausibly exogenous variation in the passage of municipal firearm ordinances that result from county level weather conditions on the day of the National School Walkout. I find no discernible effect of ordinances on firearm deaths at the county level. These estimates are precisely zero, and I can rule out any effects larger than a 1% change from the mean number of firearm deaths. In further analyses of effects by victim subgroups defined by race, education, and age, I again do not detect any significant impact of ordinances on deaths. The first stage provides evidence that increased turnout for the 2018 National School Walkout led to more firearm ordinances being passed. Counties in states with punitive firearm preemption laws are much less likely to pass firearm ordinances. The second chapter conducts a randomized controlled trial of one such program. Participants randomly assigned to intensive, holistic, wrap-around services have 10 percentage points higher employment rates after one year compared with a control group offered only help with an immediate need (p=0.03). Most of this effect appears to persist after programming ends (p=0.13). However, we find limited evidence that intensive, holistic services affect areas beyond employment, even when other areas of life are participants' primary goals. We find some evidence that the program works by increasing hopefulness and agency among participants, which may be more useful in supporting labor force participation than in meeting other goals. The third chapter studies California’s 2017 minimum wage law, which implemented a higher wage floor for firms with at least 26 employees. Using establishment-year data from the Longitudinal Business Database, we estimate the law’s effect on firm size. Applying a standard TWFE difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy reduced the likelihood that California firms have just over 26 employees. The statistical significance of the estimates is sensitive to the inclusion of county-level controls interacted with year effects. We present suggestive evidence that the law disincentivizes firms from increasing employment. Despite the diversity of topics, each chapter centers on evaluating how policy interventions shape economic and social outcomes. These papers are unified by their focus on real-world policies and programs—whether enacted by governments or nonprofit organizations. Across chapters, the aim is to understand how institutions can influence behaviors in ways that promote—or fail to promote—desired outcomes. The policy questions addressed span different domains: gun violence, labor markets, and social services. They also vary across levels of government and institutional actors—from municipal and state governments to community-based nonprofits. Yet they are united by the central concern of whether and how interventions succeed. Together, these findings highlight where policy can be a powerful tool—and where it may fall short—offering evidence to guide smarter policy design.<p></p>