Epidemiological Modeling of a Bioterrorist Attack on the I-95 Corridor

My thesis employs a stochastic, population-based SEIR model to determine attack rates and mortality resulting from the deliberate release of a bioterrorist agent such as avian influenza from several strategic I-95 Corridor populations. While a lower basic reproductive number (R₀) and protracted generation time (T_g) produced the fewest fatalities, multiple attack loci accelerated peak of infection by as much as several months, complicating potential interventions. Contrastingly, a high R₀ coupled with a brief generation time, irrespective of the number of populations attacked, yielded fatalities approaching one million individuals in as little as one month without containment. Comprehensive vaccination could avert as many as 460,000 fatalities, with a value of statistical life of $3.96T. Extensive antiviral treatment was projected to save as many as 575,000 lives, at a value greater than $4.95T, while a one-quarter reduction in travel yielded as many as 200,000 fewer fatalities, at a value beyond $1.72T.