Understanding Election Violence in Burundi

This study conducts an analysis of the temporal and geographic distribution of violence linked to the 2010 communal elections in Burundi, including its forms, actors and targets to test alternative explanations for this violence. First, a brief review of the literature on contentious politics is used to draw out a series of hypotheses about how, where and when violence will be organized. Then, a brief historical overview of violence in Burundi provides context for recent events. Both qualitative and statistical analyses are performed to explore which factors may have caused the violence. The results suggest that election results are not alone sufficient to explain the violence, thus pointing to the need to consider the role of ongoing cycles of repression and dissent. This suggests the international community ought to modify the way it approaches promoting democracy in states emerging from war.